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Obama's wheelbarrow economics
Gerard Jackson
The brilliant Obama and his advisors think they can create millions of productive jobs by spending billions of taxpayers' money on subsidies for greenie projects. Obama has taken on board the green fiction that spending $US150 billion on windmills, solar panels and 'energy efficiency' would create 5 million jobs and promote economic growth. The Messiah became so taken with the grandeur of it all that during the presidential campaign he expressed the opinion that a mere $US100 billion spent over two years could produce 2 million green jobs.
The fallacious idea behind this economic lunacy is the belief that huge expenditures on so-called green technology will more than offset the costs of reducing the number of coal and oil-fuelled power stations. The Obama administration -in-waiting is relying on a number of studies that claim dollars invested in 'renewable' energy and energy efficiency could create four times as many jobs as would the same dollars invested in gas or oil projects. The leftwing Apollo Alliance, a San Francisco coalition of environmental and labour groups, released a study last September in which they claimed that an expenditure of $US500 billion would create five million green jobs.
These so-called green projects would be a great way to wreck an economy. Let us do this by the numbers. How can any one of these greenies claim with a straight face that an economy that from 1970 to 2006 created an additional 65,749,000 jobs needs Obama's guiding hand to generate jobs? (U.S. Census Bureau, Statistical Abstract of the United States: 2008). America's job machine is a staggering achievement that puts Europe to shame. It's free market processes that generate jobs and raise living standards, not ignorant politicians.
Now that we have dispensed with the nonsensical notion that meddling politicians are better at creating jobs than markets, let us deal with the green argument that their 'energy' projects would create more jobs than they destroy. It doesn't matter a damn whether they do or not. It has never been a question of creating jobs. So long as there is sufficient capital and land (land in the economic sense) to employ all those who are able and willing to work there can be no persistent wide-spread unemployment in a market economy. If it were just a case of creating jobs we could easily do what Keynes suggested and that is
. . . fill old bottles with banknotes, bury them at suitable depths in disused coal mines which are then filled up to the surface with town rubbish, and leave it to private enterprise on well-tried principles of laissez-faire to dig the notes up again (the right to do so being obtained, of course, by tendering for leases of the note-bearing territory), there need be no more unemployment and, with the help of the repercussions, the real income of the community, and its capital wealth also, would probably become a good deal greater than it actually is [italics added]. It would, indeed, be more sensible to build houses and the like; but if there are political and practical difficulties in the way of this, the above would be better than nothing. (John Maynard Keynes, The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, Macmillan, St Martin’s Press for the Royal Economic Society, 1973, p. 129).
It is of course arrant nonsense to argue that a country can make itself rich by using part of its labour force to bury pound notes in bottles which are then dug up again. (I think Keynes was having a sly dig at the gold standard which he detested for putting a brake on inflationary policies). No one in his right mind could seriously argue that the ancient pharaohs' policy of building pyramids, a practice that seems to have drawn Keynes' admiration, enriched Egypt.
The real trick, as I have said so many times before, is to create more and more higher paying jobs. And this can only be done through capital accumulation. It is this process — usually called economic growth — that raises living standards, something that neo-classical economists would not dispute. But it is also at this point that the Austrians sharply depart from their neo-classical cousins. While the Austrians stress the fact that capital forms a heterogeneous structure consisting of complex stages of production, the neo-classical economists have adopted the view that capital is homogeneous and — in the opinion of many — a self sustaining fund.
This difference of opinion is crucial in discerning the dangers of Obama's green proposals. According to Austrian capital theory a continuing lengthening of the production structure raises productivity and hence real wages. But this can only happen if the community produces more than it consumes, the difference being savings that are used to produce capital goods. It should be clear by now that the process of capital accumulation raises the ratio of capital to labour, something that no neo-classical economist would take issue with.
This point needs stressing because what Obama and his advisors are proposing is the dissipation of capital. This means that the ratio of labour to capital would rise, a process guaranteed to lower the demand for labour thereby cutting real wages. We can see this in the greens' argument that their proposal would employ more people than would the building of coal or oil-fuelled power stations. But these power stations involve huge economies of scale that reduce unit costs. It is these falling costs that create more and more jobs right down the production structure to the point of consumption. What Obama's proposal amounts to is using taxpayers' money to deliberately create malinvestments that will lower living standards.
In a nutshell, according to Obama's logic green projects create more jobs because they are labour intensive. So are wheel barrows and shovels. Does this mean that all earth moving machinery should be banned by law? That scores of factories should be set up to manufacture nothing but shovels and wheelbarrows? Think of the enormous number of jobs this would create. And think of the gigantic wage cuts that such a policy would impose on the masses.
I am deadly serious about this comparison. There is no fundamental economic difference in principle between sabotaging the building of centralised power stations and the banning of bulldozers. The only thing that makes them differ is that the latter proposal is self-evidently stupid while Obama's proposal requires the kind of knowledge that most people do not possess — and that includes himself and his oh-so clever advisors
For those who think I am exaggerating, let us take a swift look at some basic facts. The upper limit for a windmill is about 59.3 per cent. This is called the Betz limit. What it tells us is that it is impossible for any windmill or wind turbine to turn more than 59.3 the per cent of the wind’s energy into mechanical or electrical energy. In English so plain that even Obama and his advisors can grasp it — wind power is dilute and that's where its diseconomies of scale come from.
The same goes for solar panels. There is a fundamental physical law at work here. It states that the maximum amount of energy that the earth receives from the sun under optimum conditions is just under 1 kWh per square metre (11 square feet). So even if these panels were 100 per cent technically efficient they would still be grossly inefficient economically. (One should take note that greenies and their mouthpieces are always careful about never mentioning economic efficiency).
Diseconomies of scale mean rising costs, not falling costs. Another insurmountable technical problem is the scientific fact that the maximum power one can extract from a windmill is also proportional to the third power of the wind’s velocity. This means that even small changes in wind velocity will generate huge disproportionate changes in output, even with the best designed windmills.
A 1978 British study should give you some ideal of how inefficient these projects are. It calculated that it would take 20 million windmills with 100 foot diameter blades to meet the country's electricity needs. For America, it would have been something like 250,000 windmills with 300 foot blades. How many windmills would it take today? (That the study is nearly 30 years old is irrelevant. Physical laws do not change with the passing of time or politicians).
Denmark is one country from whose energy mistakes have been ignored. It allowed itself to be conned by green fanatics in to diverting masses of scarce capital into building wind farms, much to the disgust of real scientists and engineers. The country is now in the ridiculous situation where its theoretical generating capacity is three times that of peak demand.
Yet, according to a 1999 estimate, wind accounts for only about 1.7 per cent of electricity production — at a cost of about $AUS600 million in annual subsidies. On the other hand, gas-fired power stations have concentrated power and economies of scale, which means falling costs. By this means, the price of electricity is lowered. And that means lower input prices for industry which in turns expands the demand for more jobs.
Let us now take a quick look at what reasonably informed and intelligent people are up against. Anatole Kaletsky is the associate editor of the London Times and is considered to be a top-notch economist. He his also a rabid Bush-hater. To him Bush is "doltish" while Obama is of high intelligence. (New president could help US economy recover quickly 4 November 2008). In the same article he argued that if Obama levies "higher energy taxes . . . [he] would raise trillions of dollars in revenues", which in turn would fund greenie projects. In short, this genius thinks you can squeeze trillions out capital intensive industries and still raise living standards.
Just in case you are thinking that I misrepresented him, this is the same pompous ass who argues that putting severe restrictions on Co2 emissions would stimulate growth and raise the demand for labour because they would "have the effect on the world economy comparable to a large-scale war". (Digging beneath the gloom, The Australian, 29 November 2000). That's right, this joker thinks waging war which means the destruction of men and capital is good for a country. I guess that's why living Germany and Japan in 1946 had the world's highest living standards.
Gerard Jackson is Brookesnews' economics editor
BrookesNews.Com
Monday 10 November 2008