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Brumby urges Rudd to repeat the Whitlam disaster and flood the economy with 'cheap credit'

Gerard Jackson
BrookesNews.Com

Monday 6 October 2008

The current economic situation and the economic snake oil that the Labor Government is peddling and which most of the media is swallowing reminds of Don Russell’s* defence of the Hawk-Keating years (The Age, What Honest John really said on rates, 9 February 2005) and the light it inadvertently shone on the sorry state of economic thinking in Australia.

It has become increasingly apparent that the Australian economy of the 1980s and the 1991-92 recession are in danger of becoming the most misunderstood events in Australian economic history. This is not due to political malice or a desire to inflate the economic achievements of one’s political party, though these factors do intrude at times. The problem is the usual one of bad economic theory. In other words, it is the shadow of Keynes that is at work here.

Russell claims that it “was these inflation expectations that meant that the 90-day bank bill rate averaged 14.5 per cent during the 1980s”. This is a clear case of putting the cart in front of the horse. Throughout the 1980s the CPI averaged 8 per cent. It was this situation that generated “inflation expectations”. In plain English, inflation and not expectations create price premiums. If speculators’ expectations of rising prices are frustrated they will find themselves out of pocket. But there is no way that their expectations in the continued absence of rising prices can create a price premium.

In March 1983 the CPI stood at 61.6 (1989/90 =100, nsa). By December 1990 it had climbed to 106.0, a 72 per cent rise. Now what could account for this drastic increase? Could it be the fact that M1 had risen by 92 per cent and bank deposits by a stunning 147 per cent? Yet no where in his article does Russell refer to the money supply. On the contrary, he blames the banks for the monetary mess and accuses them of “ridiculous lending” policies that “created a property frenzy and surging demand”.

But once we focus on monetary policy we are left with no alternative but to sheet the blame for inflation and the recession home to the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia). It is the RBA and not the banks that is responsible for the money supply. Therefore the RBA must take the blame for the 90-day bank bill rate and the high CPI that prevailed throughout the 1980s.

money supply

money supply

Russell bragged that "the Accord had kept wages in check and facilitated a major shift from wages to profits". However, the so-called Accord’s real intent was to use Keynesian policies to lower unemployment by using inflation to cut labour costs. What most commentators do not realise is that the underlying principle of Keynesianism is that governments can use monetary policy to reduce unemployment by raising the value of the worker’s product relative to the cost of hiring him.

But this policy leads to economic distortions, balance-of-payments problems and the boom-bust cycle. Hence the 1991-92 recession and the subsequent decline in the CPI. Now Russell charged that though unemployment fell “employers had little incentive to raise productivity — labour was cheap and profits were high, so why should they bother?”

This is shocking nonsense that assumes labour and capital are substitutes and not complementary factors. If Russell were right countries with an abundance of cheap labour would never industrialise. He ought to know that it can be easily shown that in a situation where labour is virtually a free good it would still pay employers to invest in machinery that would raise productivity. If he wants a sensible explanation of why productivity was low in the 1980s he should look elsewhere.

If the reader refers to the chart for deposits he will notice that deposits, meaning credit expansion, virtually levelled out from late 1988 to about June 1991. They stood at 28.9 billion in January 1989 and 30.2 billion in June 1991, a mere increase of 1.3 per cent. This is where the recession came from. From 1989-90 to 1991-1992 fixed capital expenditure in manufacturing fell by 18.3 per cent. However, manufacturing output started to decline in late 1988 or early 1989 (Reserve Bank of Australia Bulletin, Semi-Annual Statement on Monetary Policy, May 1997, p. 5). We can now see that Australia was sliding into recession well before 1991.

Simple-minded economic thinking has it that by expanding demand — cranking up the money supply — the RBA can stimulate consumption (true) which through the multiplier effect will induce business to invest via the accelerator — not true. Let us do this by the numbers:

1. There is no Keynesian multiplier. It is nothing but a dangerous fiction.

2. Stimulating consumption always lowers investment. Furthermore, using inflation to increase consumption not only undermines the capital structure it also misdirects production.

3. The accelerator is another Keynesian fiction. It was completely demolished by the late Professor William H. Hutt. (The Keynesian Episode, LibertyPress, 1979, chapter 17).

I would dearly like say that Russell's terrible economics is the exception. Not so. The 'economics' one finds floating around in the Liberal Party is just as bad — if not worse. For instance, the RBA has given us a rerun of the 1980s and not a single Liberal politician has the slightest clue as to what is really going on. The cluelessness of Liberal Politicians was brought home again by two events. First, we had Julie Bishop making asinine comments about "short-selling'. At the same time Malcolm Turnbull was making stupid comments about interest rates.

Second, Brumby, Labor Premier of Victoria, recently called upon the Rudd Government to slash interest rates and flood the country with phony bank deposits. (Herald Sun, Tougher global times require strong action now, 2 October 2008 ) Why? Because Brumby has been advised by some vulgar Keynesian getting fat on the taxpayers' dollar that economic growth can be created by forcing down interest rates which will then then expand credit.

This is one of the oldest and certainly most dangerous economic fallacies around. Yet not a single Liberal politician seems capable of seeing that Brumby is peddling pure economic snake oil.


*Don Russell was chief of staff to Paul Keating as treasurer and prime minister.

Gerard Jackson is Brookes’ economics editor