Why Beijing is twisting North Korea's arm

Peter Zhang
BrookesNews.Com
Friday 11 July 2003

About three years ago I wrote of the tragedy that has turned Stalinist North Korea into a genuine hell-hole, place where the notion of a living death has taken on real meaning. I argued that Beijing could redeem itself in the eyes of the world by committing the humanitarian action of opening up its border to starving Koreans.

She could, as I suggested earlier, declare the border region an emergency zone and then call on the West for emergency aid. There is no way the West could refuse the request given the depth and extent of the famine. It would also provide Beijing with a propaganda coup.

It now looks as if Beijing is preparing to act. Where a plea for humanitarian action would fall on deaf ears, self-interest, that much maligned of human drives, can perform miracles. This usually happens in the market place. Occasionally, however, it can happen in the political sphere, as Kim Jong-il’s 2000 visit to China, most of which he spent in Shanghai, demonstrates.

North Korea is costing Chinese taxpayers a bundle, which also means less for the military. And for what? Every penny that Beijing gives to Kim is wasted. Instead of being an asset North Korea has turned into a massive economic and political liability. It is where China would be if Mao's successors had continued with his economic lunacy. In plain English the North has become a gigantic financial black hole that Beijing cannot afford.

The dilemma for Beijing is obvious: How to keep the North as a close ally, if not vassal state, without bankrupting ourselves? The previous conclusion that there were only two possible outcomes for China:

Persuade Kim to adopt the policies of Deng Xaoping or keep the border closed and allow the North to implode. From Beijing's perspective the first option was evidently the more desirable. My assessment at the time was that if Kim rejected Beijing's advice in favour of maintaining Kim the Elders absurd economic policy of autarky then Beijing would have to cut him loose.

In a transparent attempt to try and steer Kim into seeing things Beijing's way he was invited to Shanghai and shown the city's manufacturing investments and the wealth of its citizens (who are fabulously rich by North Korean standards) in the hope that his observations would help persuade him to follow China’s example and free up his economy.

That the regime was serious about its intentions was made clear by the presence of Zhu Rongji who acted as Kim's guide throughout his visit. Just in case Kim didn't get the message Zhu impressed upon him, in a polite way, of course, the unfortunate political consequences of ignoring Beijing's brotherly advice, going so far as to relate to Kim the fate of Mr and Mrs Nicolae Ceausescu who also failed to read the spirit of the times and so suffered the ultimate fate.

No one in China really knew at the time whether Kim had been sufficiently impressed, or even impressed, with Zhu’s fraternal advice as to actually accept it. They now know that Kim didn't get the message. It is now agreed in China that the writing is on the wall for Kim

The final irony is that it looks as if China's self-interest is going to be the means by which the fall of Kim is finally assured. The great thing about the situation for the rest of the world is that it is George W. Bush who occupies the Oval Office and not Gore, a man held in complete contempt in the capitals of Asia — and particularly in Beijing.